As swine flu cases continue to rise in many countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) maintains that the epidemic does not deserve the "pandemic" label. And the United States, representing just over half of the 12,954 confirmed cases of the disease reported to WHO by 46 countries, there are signs the epidemic may have peaked.
Number of cases in part reflect the intensity of a country surveillance efforts, but it is clear that the new H1N1 virus responsible for the disease has made solid progress in Japan, with 350 confirmed cases, most outside the Americas. The cases in recent days have also nearly doubled in Chile to 74, the highest number seen in the southern hemisphere. Yet WHO Keiji Fukuda, the Deputy Director General, explained at a press conference today that the spread does not deserve to spend a Phase 5 alert to phase 6, indicating a pandemic large scale. "It is quite possible that it will continue to spread and it will be implemented in many other countries in several regions, in which it would be fair to call it a pandemic," said Fukuda. " Right now, we're really still in the early parts of the evolution of the spread of this virus, and we'll see where it goes. "
WHO earlier had defined phase 6 that sustained spread of the virus community in two regions of the world, but last week put that definition on the ice, following pressure from member countries who criticized the phasing system does not take into account the severity of the disease. Fukuda said in the coming weeks that WHO hopes to hold a video conference with leading scientists and public health specialists who have "a wide range of views" on how to define the phases of influenza epidemics. "We're trying to see what kind of adjustments could be made to ensure that the definitions really meet the situation," said Fukuda.
At a press conference today by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the top scientific spokesman for the agency, Anne Schuchat, highlighted the indicators suggested the worst may be over in the United States-for now at least. "Our national statistics and most of our regional statistics suggests that we have passed the peak here for this time of year," said Schuchat.
CDC has no hard evidence that the spread of the new H1N1 virus has actually decreased. Rather, CDC divides the United States into nine regions, and seven saw a decline in influenza-like illness (ILI) in recent weeks. "We were on the baseline for this time of year, which is really extraordinary for several weeks, and now we are below the baseline again," said Schuchat. But she warned that the decline may be just a "breathing space" due to the arrival of summer and the virus can come back strong at the return of cold weather in the fall.
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