- The efforts against polio epidemics by vaccinating adults and children are expensive and potentially misleading. This is the conclusion of an analysis of recent outbreaks in Tajikistan and the Republic of Congo. The researchers wanted to find out if adults and older children had spread the virus and, more importantly, whether giving adult booster vaccines to prevent transmission would do any good once the epidemic began. To find out, the team analyzed data from the real world with two computer models. The first was a standard model of polio transmission, in which people do not lose their immunity over time. According to this model, adults in Congo, but not Tajikistan, transmitted polio. This is not a surprise, because polio is transmitted when fecal matter is found in the stomach of someone else, and Tajikistan typically has a healthier Congo. More surprising is what happened when the researchers looked at a second computer model that takes into account that in the years since they have been vaccinated, adults and older children may have lost their immunity and could so help spread polio. Despite the change, the model predicts the same number of people will get sick, and the outbreak has taken on the same course, although some people have lost their immunity. This finding, announced today online in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , means that the lost immunity is not to blame for spreading polio adults, and adults simply giving vaccinations against polio will not necessarily help stop an epidemic. In Congo, they say, adult boosters could have helped, but in Tajikistan it would have been expensive and probably unnecessary. In the future, the team argues, world health officials should spend their time and money to respond more quickly to the first signs of a polio epidemic. This way, children can get the protection of a vaccine before the epidemic gets out of control.
A better way to fight against polio?
A better way to fight against polio?
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