There is no surprise that a sudden wave of summer heat can kill the elderly; it is dangerous for the serious public health that will only grow as the world warms. But are older survive milder winters balance the loss of life during the summers?
A new study suggests not. An increase of 1 ° C in the average temperature of 1% killed more people, whereas the same increase in average winter temperatures registered only 0.6%, according to an analysis of death records for nearly 3 million people 65 and over living in New England from 00 to 08. Not only that, but sudden temperature swings of another phenomenon that could increase with climate change in some regions were deemed killers even worse in summer winter.
"People get physically fit," says study author Joel Schwartz, an epidemiologist Environment at Harvard University. "But if [temperature] bounces back, we do not do . "
many studies have examined the immediate effect on mortality rates within days of a heat wave. But it is unclear whether some of these people with cardiovascular systems or respiratory compromise, would have died anyway. Few studies have examined the long-term effects or compare the harms of summer heat waves with the benefits of warmer winters.
so Schwartz temperatures and colleagues calculated an average summer and winter in postcodes New England for 8 years, and followed the deaths of elderly people living in them, according to Medicare data. in addition to finding that milder winters are not for warmer summers, the team discovered that the sudden changes of temperature jump from a cold winter day in a winter day warm and again, for example, was a worse killer waves from summer heat or winter or summer. Schwartz said the power to kill Jumpy temperature change is greater than that of AIDS and similar diseases such as liver cancer, which kills about 25,000 people in the US each year. The team reports its results online today in Nature Climate Change .
Highlights of work "a major public health problem," says Jonathan Patz, a public health researcher at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who is not involved in the research. "I think that it is a very important study. "
As to why the temperature variations are so deadly, Schwartz said he do to not give people time enough for their cardiovascular systems or respiratory adaptation. in the future, he wants to see if the same trends hold in other regions, starting with the southeast United States, where people are more acclimated to warmer temperatures. he also wants to study temperature and mortality in Europe, where air conditioning is less common.
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