H Ebden B RIDGE , UK - A recent sharp increase the number of deaths from variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in Britain has caused concern that an epidemic long dreaded the fatal brain disease is imminent. But the numbers may be a statistical fluke, scientists write in tomorrow's issue of The Lancet .
Researchers agree that vCJD, to which some 39 Britons have died since 1995, can be caused by eating meat from cows with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), better known as disease mad cow. Millions of British people may have been exposed to meat from cows infected during a BSE epidemic that peaked in the late 1980s; but nobody knows how many are likely to be victims of vCJD, or how long the disease develop in the average patient
So far the figures have been reassuring. In each of the first three quarters of 1998, only two deaths were reported. But in the last quarter of '98, the number suddenly jumped to nine. This may be a coincidence, a team of scientists led by Robert Wills of the CJD Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh write in their analysis. But it could also signal the beginning of a larger increase, says one of the authors, Simon Cousens of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. "I do not want to prejudge the issue," said Cousens, "but I would not be surprised if it was the beginning of an upward curve." It is unlikely that the apparent increase is due to increased vigilance among doctors, writing team, because vCJD is a high profile disease for years.
The scientists and the public are now eagerly awaiting the latest data. So far, there has only been one confirmed death vCJD in the first quarter of 1999, but that means little, because it usually takes months for cases confirmed to arrive. It will be 6 to 9 months before there is more certainty, Cousens said. "Certainly I'm concerned about the numbers," said John Collinge, head of the Neurogenetics department at Imperial College School of Medicine in London.
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