The use of a computer to predict an epidemic of infectious disease before it starts may seem a bit of Philip K. Dick's science fiction, but scientists are approaching. In a new study, the researchers used machine learning and computer education to recognize patterns in large data sets to make accurate forecasts on which the animals can harbor dangerous viruses, bacteria and fungi. Better predictions could help experts to improve the way they and prevent epidemics.
"I can not stress enough how exciting this paper. I think it will really resonate with the scientific community," says Lynn Martin, a conservationist of the disease to the University of Florida South, Tampa, who was not involved in the study.
Almost all new infectious disease outbreaks occur when a virus, a bacterium, a fungus or jumps from one animal to be human. accurately predict when and where these species infections called zoonotic diseases could stifle cross-epidemics before they become epidemics. But maintaining active surveillance of the disease worldwide is costly and takes time.
to help narrow the search, a team of scientists have built a computer program to analyze massive database habits and habitats of mammals, including geographical distribution and reproductive strategies for hundreds of species. Their program evaluated 86 variables such as body size, lifespan and population density, hunting for common patterns in animals known to be carriers of zoonotic diseases. "I'm really surprised that no one had. It seemed like a natural approach, "says team leader Barbara Han, an environmental disease in Cary Institute of studies of the ecosystem in Millbrook, New York.
To simplify the results, Han and his colleagues restricted their analysis to Rodents- a group that bears an abnormally high number of zoonotic diseases. Rodents carrying zoonotic infections tend to have "live fast, die young" lifestyle, said Han. They have large geographic areas, early sexual maturity, large litter sizes, and shorter periods of gestation. Scientists are not certain why this lifestyle is common in rodents carriers of zoonotic diseases, but they suggest that the pace reproduction cycle can allow animals to pass on their genes successfully before the disease kills. "Even if it kills you in 6 months, you'll be able to put out as five litters," says Han.
Han and his team first used their program to identify common lifestyles rodent harboring diseases such as plague, rabies virus and the haunted and found that their model had a 0% accuracy. After the machine had "learned" the warning signs, researchers sought new rodent who fit the profile, but no one previously thought to be carriers. So far, the model has identified more than 150 new animal species that might harbor zoonotic diseases, the researchers report online today in the Proceedings of the national Academy of sciences . the computer program also predicted 58 new infections in rodents that were already known to carry a zoonotic disease.
based on its findings, the team was also able to identify hot spots where a disease was more likely to jump from rodents to humans in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the US Midwest. Rodents living near the man were also more likely to be carriers of zoonotic diseases. But even as low population densities than 50 people per square kilometer have been associated with increased chance for zoonotic diseases in animals-a threshold that was surprising to Han. "I thought the tanks to be in areas where there are a lot of people," she said, "but it seems that if you have an average level of the man in your range that is enough."
As exciting as it is to predict new zoonotic diseases, it is another thing to prevent. "I think all the work is ahead of us," said Han It is difficult to know what the rodent distinguished by the study to focus on;.. Many rarely interact with humans, if at all behaviors humans such as deforestation, urbanization, and increased carbon emissions could all influence where and when an illness made the jump from animal to person, but exactly how and when this might occur is difficult to predict. Finally once the disease is cross species, health workers and epidemiologists will be challenged to contain and treat infections never seen before. "They can really we of whether a kind door a parasite, "says Martin. really understand how it is likely to cross to humans will require further study.
But Han said the work of his team has yet to make this job easier. He also talks about the importance of basic research, she said. Without the information from the database, much of which had no obvious application as it was being developed, the study would never have been possible. "I kind of worry if we stop to appreciate the contributions of basic science then we will not be able to do these types of breakthroughs in the future," she said . "One will not be able to predict anything if we do not have the back story. "
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