Big bucks. Spending huge sums of money on AIDS awareness campaigns, like this one in Kpomassè, Benin, could stop the spread of the disease, according to a new model.
Jacky Naegelen / Reuters
a group of researchers proposes a radical approach to halt the HIV / AIDS: Go on a spending spree. Pour over $ 60 billion in treatment, massive prevention campaigns and condom distribution over the next five years, instead of distributing money slowly over 2 decades, as currently planned, will stop effectively the spread of the disease, according to a new model.
More than 33 million people worldwide are living with AIDS. The problem is particularly pronounced in South Africa and Zimbabwe, where up to 28% of the population is infected with HIV. The strategy of the World Health Organization to fight against the problem in developing countries focuses on "universal access" to HIV services. This includes treatment of infected people with antiretroviral drugs, counseling risk groups on safe sex, and mount advertising campaigns that inform people about the dangers of the disease.
Governments, non-governmental organizations and charities spend about $ 9 billion years these efforts, even if they have much more to them. "Current plans are to hold the majority of the money in reserve and go slowly," says infectious disease modeler Robert Smith? University of Ottawa in Canada (the question mark is part of his name) . "There is a tendency for people to be careful when there is a lot of money involved." the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, for example, has made the fight against HIV / AIDS a priority, but spends only $ 3 billion per year, a small fraction of its total endowment of $ 60 billion.
instead, Smith? argued that if the aim is to stop the spread of disease, then the fastest way would be to spend all the money pledged by private donors, countries and NGOs right now and outgun the epidemic before growth of the population and the number of new infections balloons out control.
in determining whether such a strategy would be effective, Smith? and colleagues developed a model for the eradication of HIV / AIDS. The model divides the world into regions and predicts the number of new cases based on the demographics and epidemiological parameters, including infection rates, the number of people treated, and resistance to antiretroviral drugs. If the rate of HIV infection can be reduced by three-fifths, the team reports today in a supplement to BMC Public Health , the prevalence of AIDS will start to decrease. "This does not mean zero cases," Smith? warnings, "but it can be a tipping point where the fight against AIDS is gaining unprecedented scale."
The strategy would not be cheap. The reduction in the HIV infection rate by three-fifths, there should be every person infected with HIV on antiretroviral drugs, education campaigns and widespread awareness, and make condoms available to every man on the planet. All these tactics are in play, "but not enough," says Smith?. The total cost would come to $ 63 billion over 5 years. Governments, NGOs and charities the money to them right now, Smith said,? they are just not spending fast enough
"I think this is a good example of utopian modeling," says epidemiologist Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina School of Medicine in Chapel Hill. . But it gives the false impression that a solution to the HIV / AIDS is just a matter of spending money, he said, and this could discourage the development of new treatments and vaccines.
Susan Allen, public health specialist at Emory University in Atlanta, says that donors could get more for their money by focusing on high-risk groups such as heterosexual couples in Africa, rather than test and treat everyone at once.
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