First the bad news: Revised estimates of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest that the new H1N1 virus spread much further into the country and taken much cooler than previous analyzes have suggested.
Now here's some more bad news: CDC says manufacturers shipped less pandemic vaccine this week than expected
According to new estimates released today CDC, about 22 million Americans have been infected with the virus. , 98,000 were hospitalized, and 3,00 died. These data represent cases since the pandemic emerged in April and run until October 17. So far, the CDC reported that the H1N1 cases and deaths confirmed by laboratory tests. (As of October 31, the cumulative figures were 26.917 hospitalizations and 1265 deaths). But the confirmed cases are believed to be only a small part of the actual burden of influenza. Many people never seek medical attention, even if they do, they are not generally tested for novel H1N1. Some patients die in hospitals for complications from infection without the in statistics
Anne Schuchat, head of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a conference release today that the new estimates come from improved method that is not only based on laboratory-confirmed cases. "We do not think that things have changed since last week to this week," Schuchat said. "For the flu, it is virtually impossible to find every case with a lab test."
In the new methodology, CDC extrapolates from two sources: the Emerging Infections Program that tracks the laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza in 10 states and the aggregate hospitalization and the death of activity reports that Schuchat said has about 30 states reporting. "Estimation method we use now, we believe gives a bigger picture, probably a more accurate picture of the extent of the pandemic," she said.
regarding supply vaccines, CDC says the total available to the States today is 41.6 million doses. last Friday, the total was 38 million and the CDC should have 8 million more by the end this week. "we were not expecting to meet that estimate that manfacturers gave us," said Schuchat. When asked what accounted for the delays, Schuchat said the final stage of vaccine testing and transportation problems because of bad weather.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization said today that antiviral treatment should begin as soon as possible in H1N1 patients at risk higher critical illness. Wait too long to administer Tamiflu or Relenza of pregnant women, children under 2 years, and people affected lung or heart conditions not only can be fatal, but also leads to more stress on overburdened healthcare systems, WHO doctor Nikki Shindo warned today at a press conference in Geneva. The recommendations are part of new guidelines on how to treat patients with H1N1.
"We have heard that doctors who treat very sick patients in intensive care units regretted that the patients arrived too late, and even the most sophisticated medical procedures could not save their lives," Shindo said. In patients at risk, doctors should not wait for laboratory confirmation that the patient has H1N1, and they should be treated even if symptoms are mild. "The window of opportunity is very narrow to reverse the progression of the disease. The drug should be administered before the virus destroys the lungs." Although Tamiflu is most effective when administered within 48 hours after the onset of symptoms, physicians should not withhold the drug if this window has passed, she added, because it can still have benefits.
The WHO has a stockpile of 10 million Tamiflu treatments for use in developing countries, and Shindo said the agency is seeking donors to provide more. Recently, some of the stocks were distributed to Afghanistan, Mongolia, Belarus and Ukraine, which have been hard hit; Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan will soon follow.
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