Racing to track the spread of swine flu, health organizations have warned this morning that the number of infected people is changing time, and the World Health Organization is eyeing an upgrade pandemic 5 if it sees sustained transmission from person to person in at least two countries. Mexico is already there, the WHO said, and is now a close watch on New York City, where swine flu has spread across at least one school. The WHO level of alert was raised 3-4 Monday.
Even if the disease were confirmed in more and more countries-Germany and Austria have been added to the severity of the flu-list is concerned. "We do not have a handle on that point," said Keiji Fukuda, WHO's assistant director general for health security and environment, during a conference call with reporters this morning.
But the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which held its own briefing an hour before WHO, Angus Nicoll, head of the influenza program of the agency, said he sees "something that looks more like an ordinary flu, with a large number of infected people, but very few people to be sick enough to end up in the hospital or die. "Mexico, he noted, has reclassified some deaths attributed to swine flu due to other causes.
The first death outside Mexico, a Mexican toddler who traveled ago Texas several weeks, was reported this morning. outside the United States and Mexico, most cases are far in people who have recently traveled to Mexico. As of today, the States United 91 confirmed cases in 10 states. Six of them, including the child who died, were hospitalized. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press conference aujourd 'hui that "we have a number of suspects who were hospitalized."
Questions remain whether the flu in Mexico, all death link associated with the flu, but the toddler is really more serious, or if, as health officials seem increasingly most believe, there simply were many cases of influenza diagnosed there, making it much smaller rate than it appears at first glance of death.
Officials also fear that a second or third wave of swine flu will hit later this year with more severity than the first. That's what happened in 1918, said Nicoll, when pandemic flu first presented as light before pulling back and re, killing millions. WHO officials will soon face a difficult choice of whether to encourage vaccine manufacturers to the ramp of the vaccine against seasonal influenza stores, as they do every year, or to focus on a vaccine against swine flu. It is also possible that the strain of swine flu could be added to the seasonal vaccine next year. "There is not enough information to make that decision yet," said Nicoll Indeed, at this time, the warning to the public of those charging seems to be. Do not rely on what we say now because it is likely to change tomorrow.
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