Tokyo- Swine flu hit Asia, with reports in South Korea yesterday its first suspected case. As the vast majority of other cases outside of Mexico so far, it is mild, but virologist Kennedy Shortridge warns that is no reason for complacency. He said that more the virus spreads, the greater the chance it will mix, or re-assort with other influenza viruses circulating and turn into something more lethal. "The outlook change [in the virus] are significant and worrying," he said.
Shortridge is emeritus professor at Hong Kong University, where he investigated the initial emergence of H5N1 avian influenza in 1997, when it killed six of 18 people it has infected . The city squelched this outbreak by slaughtering all 1.4 million chickens and ducks in the territory. H5N1 reappeared in 03 and since then has claimed 257 lives while devastating poultry flocks in much of Asia and parts of Africa. He has long advocated global cooperation in surveillance of influenza viruses in circulation to spot the emergence of new health officials to stem public could plan a corporate intervention and drugs could get a good start in making vaccines.
Shortridge was among the first to suggest that pigs can serve as containers blend new combinations of viruses. And swine flu now spreading in Mexico "with the hypothesis of the mixing vessel," he said.
influenza specimens Analysis by Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, found that the virus is composed of pieces of human avian viruses, swine and North America, Europe and Asia. the mixture "gives an order of complexity, we understand not really at this point, "said Shortridge.
In particular, he said he is concerned that this virus patched together might not be stable and could easily restock met with other viruses in a human or animal host. The virus has now spread to Asia, where the H5N1 virus circulates. And he said that in many areas there are human H1N1 circulating strains that are resistant to Tamiflu, the drug of choice for treating the disease in humans. It assumes that the exchange of one or more genes from these viruses could lead to a virus that is more pathogenic or more easily transmitted from person to person, or both.
precaution, Shortridge suggests sequencing as many viral samples as quickly as possible to monitor any change in the virus indicative of a massive job that requires cooperation around the world. He said such cooperation seems to be a good start, thanks to the experience of dealing with SARS in 03 and the recent efforts to prepare for a flu pandemic. "There is a history of success in the fact that the world is on alert" to the possibility of a pandemic, he said. Yet it adds even greater cooperation and communication will be needed against a threat that could change overnight.
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