With some countries Southern hemisphere report a dramatic jump in cases of swine flu, the World Health Organization inching closer to declaring a full scale Phase 6 pandemic. But WHO, recognizing that its phasing system needs fine tuning because it is based only on the distribution of the new H1N1 virus, soon plans to establish a severity index to make its alert system more useful to member countries. WHO will also provide advice best suited to each country to help them respond appropriately.
As of 2 June, 64 countries have reported nearly 19,000 confirmed cases of swine flu to WHO, including 501 from Australia, now spread wider detected disease outside North America. At a press conference today, Keiji Fukuda, WHO's assistant director general, characterized Australia, Japan, the UK and Spain, countries "in transition" to limit the spread of sustained community virus. "Overall, we believe that we are at phase 5, but is close to Phase 6," Fukuda said.
A phase 6 alert requires sustained community spread in two WHO regions, and some epidemiologists argue that this has already occurred. But WHO, following criticism of members that declaring Phase 6 could cause excessive worry about a virus that seems more dangerous than seasonal flu strains, has been reluctant to declare the pandemic full ladder. Yesterday, however, WHO consulted experts from the flu and those responsible for public health from 23 countries who supported the continued use of a phasing system based on the geographical spread of the virus. To improve its usefulness, the consultants also encouraged WHO to "change this kind of movement to phase 6 with assessments of severity," said Fukuda.
The severity is difficult to define because it includes everything from the virulence of a particular strain of influenza to the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond, Fukuda said, meaning it can differ from one place to another. " We will build flexibility in assessments of gravity, "he said. one possibility he said is to develop a three-point scale of gravity that is country-specific. So, wHO may decide that a country is to phase 6, level 3, while others are in phase 6, level 1. "the trick is not going to be so forthcoming with the three levels of severity, but it is really how to in a way that can be implemented through a number of different countries, "he said, noting that the levels can change over time.
Currently, Fukuda said the level of global gravity epidemic is "moderate." Much uncertainty remains about the number of people with serious illness, he said, and it is clear that the new H1N1 virus can kill people in perfect health. "We have some hesitation in calling such an infection" light "," he warned. And WHO remains deeply concerned about the spread of the virus in the southern hemisphere, which is cooled to its entry into the winter, the season that generally allows influenza viruses to flourish
Image Credit :. wHO
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