Do not think the worst is over: That was the message at the daily press conference of the World Health Organization this afternoon. Speaking of a tent special press in Geneva, WHO Keiji Fukuda tried to push a reaction against increasingly from those who say the swine flu is a big hype. The Guardian "columnist Simon Jenkins pulled out all the stops on Tuesday, blaming a" global coalition of scientists, doom-merchants and profiteers drugs "with alarmism. And as a USA Today / Gallup poll, 45% of Americans think the media exaggerates the threat.
Not so fast, said Fukuda. the transmission is ongoing in several places, and wHO is particularly concerned about what will happen in the southern hemisphere, which will probably be an increase in cases now it enters the winter. the population may be more susceptible due to malnutrition, HIV, war, and because there are many young people who seem so far most at risk.
Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, echoed the warning Fukuda at a press conference this afternoon. "We see no sign of that momentum." Mexico is still seeing "significant transmission," said Besser. And it continues to be a "recovery" of cases in the United States. Starting today, the United States 896 confirmed cases and 927 probable cases (tomorrow Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report noted that until now, the likely case in the United States were tested positive for more than 99% of the time). Besides, Fukada said, there is a good chance that the virus will return to the northern hemisphere in the fall and it could become more virulent.
Moreover, although the epidemic is relatively mild, simple figures are a major concern. It is not uncommon for a third of the world population to become ill during an influenza pandemic, Fukuda said: That would be 2.2 billion of us. Even if only a small fraction becomes seriously ill, it could mean millions of people who need sudden hospitalization and respirators and could die
Fukuda declined to say more, but you can do your own calculations. If, indeed, one third of the world falls ill and the case fatality rate of 0.22% observed in the United States support worldwide, 4.5 million people could die within a year or two.
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